EURUSD update March 5, 2009 1hr chart

Here is my take. Now remember that B waves are crazy waves, they can go whereever they want to, even a new low, as long as the correction is in 3 waves. My experience the 78.6% fibo usually holds well and it rarely drops below the start of wave A, but this is no guarantee that it will be so in this case. Caution is advised.

Dow Jones, will history repeat?

I made a comparisment between the DJ of today to the DJ of '29 - '34.

If history repeats, we are in for a long and deep depression.

Corrections happen in 3 waves A, B and C. We are about to complete a wave A.

Wave B retraced 50% in '30, that would put us at about 10000 today. Then a deep wave C came and a same correction would put us at 3500. Twice as low as we are today. Recovery won't be until 2012.

Hopefully it won't happen...

eur/usd update march 4, 2009

After evaluating the 3 scenario's the impulse is the only scenario left.

GBP/USD updare March 3, 2009

Update on the cable. Still some room downward.

EUR/USD update March 03, 2009

It will be interesting to see if 2509 holds. If it goes through, we are very bearish.

EUR/JPY 4h update 03-01-09 4h

Chart for the EURJPY.

GBP/USD update 03-01-2009 4h chart

Here is an update on the cable.

It looks like the 61.8% fibonacci support at 4067 is holding well sofar, however there is still potential on the downside possibly as far as 3800. The upside is there is C is a flat C which would complete wave B.

Once B is completed there is a potential for 1.6000.

EUR/USD Elliott Wave Update 02-28-09 30m chart

Here is a bigger picture update. I like this probability.

Looks like we need to close the long we entered and wait for an enty near the bottom of the channel.

Update EUR/JPY Feb 27, 2009

You have got to love this game...

After I entered long on eurusd it went up 100 pips and down another 100 pips. However, the stop is not out so we are still in and yes, up 30 pips now.

Here is a look at the EUR/JPY notice the alternate count. However given the MACD I prefer the current count as the MACD shows lots of room on the downside still.

Update Dow Jones Feb 27, 09

Here is my update on the Dow Jones. As I said last week, it will go lower. 7000 was the target and the market has gapped towards that level.
Will be interesting to see if 7000 holds, the 1.618 extension of wave 1 has already been passed. If it holds it will be wave 5 of 3, then a retrace will follow, followed by another run down.

EUR/USD update feb 27, 2009

I just entered a long based upon this count.

I kept the stop really close. A break through 78.6% fibo might mean we go back to 100% retrace. Below 1.2509 and we are bearish.

Update Feb 26, 2009

Today was a bit of a strange day for trading. Usually the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD are trading in good corrolation with eachother, today not so.
I was long on EUR/JPY and short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD on the 15m intraday chart and won all 3 trades. Also, the EUR/JPY went down 200 pips, then up 200 pips and down 260 pips again. In other words, the pairs are looking for a direction.
The EUR/JPY looks ready for a bigger correction. The price dropped form 126 to 123.61 which is a 23.6% retrace from the start of wave III at 115.63. The price might drop some more, maybe even to 120. Looking at the MACD we can see that the crossing is very high up which usually means a bigger correction.

The EURUSD is a mess right now. I would stay away. The chart I gave is in very thin pencil. We might also see another wave down. For the price to stay bullish we need to stay above 1.2511. See my earlier chart for that.
A good risk reward is to enter the market when it bounces off the trendline with short stops. The RSI is slightly up and my neuronetwork is about to cross on up.

The GBPUSD has the same story. It might drop to the 78.6% fibonacci to as much as 1.3818, but it might also stay flat at the 61.8% retrace at 1.4067. From there we will go up again in the form of a bigger wave C to as high as 1.6000.
RSI is slightly down.

Stay tuned...

EUR/USD Update Feb 26, 2009

This is what might be occuring on the eur/usd.

A seemingly indecisive eurodollar might be setting up for a big move upwards.

The C wave went flat and couldn't quite reach the low of wave A.

That means a triangle is now forming and in this count it is part of a wave 2 (or B).

If this is correct price might be 'coiling' to reach 1.3400 which is the 1.618 extension of wave 1(or A)

EURJPY reevaluating feb 24, 2009

We broke out of the upper trendchannel and tested the upward trendline at 119.55. Resistance held and that means we might have to look at different options.

Wave 1 ends at 123.69. That is the line in the sand for a wave 4 correction. Crossing this price would mean that a bigger correction is ongoing and we might see higher prices. Staying below could still mean another run down to retest the low at 112.29.

We should see a retrace from her but staying above 119.55. If we go below 119.55, we will go further down, possibly to 112 again.

Another option for this is a double zigzag where wave I is in fact a C and II would be an X (notice the 5 wave correction) and we are currently forming wave Y, but that depends on the 123.69 mark, it needs to hold in order for the double zigzag to be true.

EUR/USD update feb 23, 2009

Where are we now?

We are now in a 3 wave correction and depending on which of 3 scenario's described earlier we are in a 2 or B wave.

They can retrace almost all of wave 1 or A. B waves can even exceed the level of wave A.

I marked 2585 as the 78.6% fibonacci level. That is my initial target although we should realize that the price can hold at 2700 which coincides with the 61.8% fibonacci retrace, but I like to see confirmation from the MACD first. Once we have a bottom, a C or 3 wave should form and target there is 3300.

Dow Jones Feb 23, 2009

Update on the Dow. As predicted last week, a new low has come. Not only that, it overshot the 161.8% fibonacci extension.

A new resistance can be found at 7000.

Price could retrace from there and set up for a wave 5 and a deeper correction.

EURJPY update Feb 23, 2009F

Ouch, got stopped out of the EURJPY.

The count might still be valid though, given following Elliott rule:

Wave E almost never stops at the trend line precisely, it either never reaches the trend line or it overshoots the trend line fast and temporarily. For now we need to wait to see if price falls back into the channel.

EURJPY Feb. 22, 2009

EurJPY seems to be trading in the latter stage of wave 4 of 5 of (5).

There is strong resistance at 120.00.

I am short with a stop at 121.00 1st target is 116.50, which is the bottom of the channel.

There is still a little room upward, a patient trader waits a little while to enter closer to the upper resistance line.

EURUSD 4h chart update Feb. 21, 2009

Hello Traders,

The price is going up, but we are not sure in which scenario we are in the big picture. The scenario where the price should go to at a minimum is the impulse down, where we are currently forming a wave 2. In that case a retreat to the 38.2% fibonacci is probable. We should reevaluate from there.

The price could then continue to the 61.8% fibonacci or even 100% to 1.4700, although not likely. If the price passes 1.4700 then we are in an impulse up, likely to form a new high higher then 1.6000. If the price drops to below 1.2300 we are likely in an impulse down. Critical phase but we should know where we are within the next couple of weeks. Meantime we keep our eye on the intraday Elliott wave developments.

EURUSD scenarios Feb 21, 2009

In my mind the following 3 scenarios are most probable.

It is with these scenarios in mind that I will be counting the waves.

EURUSD short term update

Well, it went up...and how!
My short term was obviously a little off, because the price was unable to reach the low which implies that we were in a wave 2, but longterm was right, and still is because we can expect more upside.
I am expecting a retrace into the shaded area, 50% or 61.8% fibonacci retrace, to complete a wave iv and more euro gain in the form of a wave v.
We are in a wave 3 of 3 and should be testing 1.30 by next week.
If the price in this setup drops below the stopline of 1.2650, this count is invalid.

EURUSD Feb 20, 2009 short term

This is a short term count. In this count we are entering wave v down to retest the lows.

EURUSD Feb. 19, 2009 update

These are the 2 remaining counts left. Both suggest a temporary move up. Initial target is 1.3300.

After that we need to re-evaluate. It could go higher, but I am expecting either a wave 2 or a wave C. A wave 2 would not go as high and once we go down, a wave 2 would suggest a much lower eurusd, where a wave C could go flat and range between 1.25 and 1.47.

Cable update GBPUSD February 19, 2009

Still holding its textbook count. Going up...

Dow Jones Elliott Waves February 19, 2009

Update on the dow.

In this count I expect more weakness.

Cable (GBP/USD) February 18, 2009

A bit lower is still in the charts.

EUR/USD February 18, 2009

Update on the double zigzag.

eur/usd february 13, 2009 30m chart

Here is the bearish view for the EUR/USD.

Cable update february 13, 2009 15m chart

Here is a nice setup. Textbook Elliott Waves really. Take advantage while you can.

GBP/USD February 11, 2009 4h chart

Here is the update for the cable (GBP/USD).

EUR/JPY February 11, 2009 4h chart

Here an update of the EUR/JPY.

EUR/USD February 10, 2009 update

The following triple zigzag is my preferred count. 3070 seems a very strong resistance.

A triangle is forming between 3070 and 2704. Triangles usually break in the direction of the trend.

EUR/USD February 10, 2009

After the russian scare last night and the Presidential speech, the euro has recovered and the bullish count is still intact. This is a possible count, and if correct 1.3300 is the target (1.61 ext. of wave I). A drop below 2891 would eliminate this count.

President Obama Speech

Oh well, EuroDollar (EUR/USD) seems to be falling through the roof, the trendline is broken again and my C wave target has been hit at 1.2900.

But, it retraced 78.6% sofar, still okay for a wave 2, but over 100% (2746) retrace invalidates all bullish counts.

Cable February 09, 2009 hourly

The cable hit the upper trendline at 1.5000 and has been pushing it for the duration of the day.

So far it is holding but a triangle is forming. If the trendline breaks more resistance can be found at the 161.8 fibonacci extension of wave a at 1.5108.

On the downside a wave B might form as deep as 1.4000.

I am sidelined on this pair for now until a clear top forms.

EUR/USD February 9, 2009

Upper channel broken....
I am expecting a decline now, to retest the channel TL.
May go as deep at 1.2900, which will be the 50% retrace from 2747-3093.
Daily pivot is at 2887.

USD/JPY February 7, 2009

Hi Traders,

Looking at the Yen count with Fibonacci relationships, we might see another run towards 93.00.

The 161.8 extension of wave 1 is at 93.00. Wait for the break above wave 3 (92.27) if you are not in the trade already.

Also, on a second chart, see how the Yen crossed a major trendline that has been holding the pair since August 2008, retested it and is now progressing upward.

EUR/JPY Update February 7, 2009

Hi Traders,

Here an update on the EURJPY:

As I said last week, we are in an ABC correction pattern. The pair has shot through a minor resistance line which was forming a triangle and surged to the 1.2000 area.

I believe we will still get one attempt to break 1.2000 looking at the MACD there might be some more room upward. Looking at the wave count it looks like 1.2000 is the start of wave 4, which could potentially bring us down to 1.1650 the 61.8% retrace of wave 3.

We'll see how it plays out.

EUR/USD and cable (GBP/USD) update February 6, 2009

Both pairs ran into resistance. I closed out my positions.

Waiting for the correctional move.

Cable February 6, 2009

Cable is about to test an important trendline.

The cable went through the first trendline and is now to test another major resistance TL.

The MACD and RSI are at very high levels. I am expecting a correction soon.

For now, monitor.

EUR/USD February 6, 2009

Just to show you that you can make good profits with little risk.

And as I am writing this, €$ broke through 38.2% intraday resistance, so moved my stops to 2850. I don't have a target for now, I see this as a possible really big move so will keep moving stops according to EW rules to see how it plays out.

Cable update February 5, 2009

Cable has some more room up but is likely to drop a bit again.

EUR/USD February 5, 2009

As of now the wave down looks more like a 3 wave correction, and right now it looks more like a wave 2. The support at 2782 is the 76.8% retrace of wave I. I am still keeping in consideration the break of the TL at 2710, and a wave Y at 1.2500.

eur/usd back to triple zigzag

The impulse 5 wave down is pretty much out.

This is my new count.