Saturday, August 22, 2009

Update Feb 26, 2009

Today was a bit of a strange day for trading. Usually the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD are trading in good corrolation with eachother, today not so.
I was long on EUR/JPY and short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD on the 15m intraday chart and won all 3 trades. Also, the EUR/JPY went down 200 pips, then up 200 pips and down 260 pips again. In other words, the pairs are looking for a direction.
The EUR/JPY looks ready for a bigger correction. The price dropped form 126 to 123.61 which is a 23.6% retrace from the start of wave III at 115.63. The price might drop some more, maybe even to 120. Looking at the MACD we can see that the crossing is very high up which usually means a bigger correction.

The EURUSD is a mess right now. I would stay away. The chart I gave is in very thin pencil. We might also see another wave down. For the price to stay bullish we need to stay above 1.2511. See my earlier chart for that.
A good risk reward is to enter the market when it bounces off the trendline with short stops. The RSI is slightly up and my neuronetwork is about to cross on up.

The GBPUSD has the same story. It might drop to the 78.6% fibonacci to as much as 1.3818, but it might also stay flat at the 61.8% retrace at 1.4067. From there we will go up again in the form of a bigger wave C to as high as 1.6000.
RSI is slightly down.

Stay tuned...

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