EURUSD update March 5, 2009 1hr chart

Here is my take. Now remember that B waves are crazy waves, they can go whereever they want to, even a new low, as long as the correction is in 3 waves. My experience the 78.6% fibo usually holds well and it rarely drops below the start of wave A, but this is no guarantee that it will be so in this case. Caution is advised.

Dow Jones, will history repeat?

I made a comparisment between the DJ of today to the DJ of '29 - '34.

If history repeats, we are in for a long and deep depression.

Corrections happen in 3 waves A, B and C. We are about to complete a wave A.

Wave B retraced 50% in '30, that would put us at about 10000 today. Then a deep wave C came and a same correction would put us at 3500. Twice as low as we are today. Recovery won't be until 2012.

Hopefully it won't happen...

eur/usd update march 4, 2009

After evaluating the 3 scenario's the impulse is the only scenario left.

GBP/USD updare March 3, 2009

Update on the cable. Still some room downward.

EUR/USD update March 03, 2009

It will be interesting to see if 2509 holds. If it goes through, we are very bearish.

EUR/JPY 4h update 03-01-09 4h

Chart for the EURJPY.

GBP/USD update 03-01-2009 4h chart

Here is an update on the cable.

It looks like the 61.8% fibonacci support at 4067 is holding well sofar, however there is still potential on the downside possibly as far as 3800. The upside is there is C is a flat C which would complete wave B.

Once B is completed there is a potential for 1.6000.

EUR/USD Elliott Wave Update 02-28-09 30m chart

Here is a bigger picture update. I like this probability.

Looks like we need to close the long we entered and wait for an enty near the bottom of the channel.

Update EUR/JPY Feb 27, 2009

You have got to love this game...

After I entered long on eurusd it went up 100 pips and down another 100 pips. However, the stop is not out so we are still in and yes, up 30 pips now.

Here is a look at the EUR/JPY notice the alternate count. However given the MACD I prefer the current count as the MACD shows lots of room on the downside still.

Update Dow Jones Feb 27, 09

Here is my update on the Dow Jones. As I said last week, it will go lower. 7000 was the target and the market has gapped towards that level.
Will be interesting to see if 7000 holds, the 1.618 extension of wave 1 has already been passed. If it holds it will be wave 5 of 3, then a retrace will follow, followed by another run down.

EUR/USD update feb 27, 2009

I just entered a long based upon this count.

I kept the stop really close. A break through 78.6% fibo might mean we go back to 100% retrace. Below 1.2509 and we are bearish.

Update Feb 26, 2009

Today was a bit of a strange day for trading. Usually the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD are trading in good corrolation with eachother, today not so.
I was long on EUR/JPY and short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD on the 15m intraday chart and won all 3 trades. Also, the EUR/JPY went down 200 pips, then up 200 pips and down 260 pips again. In other words, the pairs are looking for a direction.
The EUR/JPY looks ready for a bigger correction. The price dropped form 126 to 123.61 which is a 23.6% retrace from the start of wave III at 115.63. The price might drop some more, maybe even to 120. Looking at the MACD we can see that the crossing is very high up which usually means a bigger correction.

The EURUSD is a mess right now. I would stay away. The chart I gave is in very thin pencil. We might also see another wave down. For the price to stay bullish we need to stay above 1.2511. See my earlier chart for that.
A good risk reward is to enter the market when it bounces off the trendline with short stops. The RSI is slightly up and my neuronetwork is about to cross on up.

The GBPUSD has the same story. It might drop to the 78.6% fibonacci to as much as 1.3818, but it might also stay flat at the 61.8% retrace at 1.4067. From there we will go up again in the form of a bigger wave C to as high as 1.6000.
RSI is slightly down.

Stay tuned...

EUR/USD Update Feb 26, 2009

This is what might be occuring on the eur/usd.

A seemingly indecisive eurodollar might be setting up for a big move upwards.

The C wave went flat and couldn't quite reach the low of wave A.

That means a triangle is now forming and in this count it is part of a wave 2 (or B).

If this is correct price might be 'coiling' to reach 1.3400 which is the 1.618 extension of wave 1(or A)

EURJPY reevaluating feb 24, 2009

We broke out of the upper trendchannel and tested the upward trendline at 119.55. Resistance held and that means we might have to look at different options.

Wave 1 ends at 123.69. That is the line in the sand for a wave 4 correction. Crossing this price would mean that a bigger correction is ongoing and we might see higher prices. Staying below could still mean another run down to retest the low at 112.29.

We should see a retrace from her but staying above 119.55. If we go below 119.55, we will go further down, possibly to 112 again.

Another option for this is a double zigzag where wave I is in fact a C and II would be an X (notice the 5 wave correction) and we are currently forming wave Y, but that depends on the 123.69 mark, it needs to hold in order for the double zigzag to be true.

EUR/USD update feb 23, 2009

Where are we now?

We are now in a 3 wave correction and depending on which of 3 scenario's described earlier we are in a 2 or B wave.

They can retrace almost all of wave 1 or A. B waves can even exceed the level of wave A.

I marked 2585 as the 78.6% fibonacci level. That is my initial target although we should realize that the price can hold at 2700 which coincides with the 61.8% fibonacci retrace, but I like to see confirmation from the MACD first. Once we have a bottom, a C or 3 wave should form and target there is 3300.

Dow Jones Feb 23, 2009

Update on the Dow. As predicted last week, a new low has come. Not only that, it overshot the 161.8% fibonacci extension.

A new resistance can be found at 7000.

Price could retrace from there and set up for a wave 5 and a deeper correction.

EURJPY update Feb 23, 2009F

Ouch, got stopped out of the EURJPY.

The count might still be valid though, given following Elliott rule:

Wave E almost never stops at the trend line precisely, it either never reaches the trend line or it overshoots the trend line fast and temporarily. For now we need to wait to see if price falls back into the channel.

EURJPY Feb. 22, 2009

EurJPY seems to be trading in the latter stage of wave 4 of 5 of (5).

There is strong resistance at 120.00.

I am short with a stop at 121.00 1st target is 116.50, which is the bottom of the channel.

There is still a little room upward, a patient trader waits a little while to enter closer to the upper resistance line.

EURUSD 4h chart update Feb. 21, 2009

Hello Traders,

The price is going up, but we are not sure in which scenario we are in the big picture. The scenario where the price should go to at a minimum is the impulse down, where we are currently forming a wave 2. In that case a retreat to the 38.2% fibonacci is probable. We should reevaluate from there.

The price could then continue to the 61.8% fibonacci or even 100% to 1.4700, although not likely. If the price passes 1.4700 then we are in an impulse up, likely to form a new high higher then 1.6000. If the price drops to below 1.2300 we are likely in an impulse down. Critical phase but we should know where we are within the next couple of weeks. Meantime we keep our eye on the intraday Elliott wave developments.

EURUSD scenarios Feb 21, 2009

In my mind the following 3 scenarios are most probable.

It is with these scenarios in mind that I will be counting the waves.